I’ve been predicted from early on in the campaign that the people would go against the prevailing mood of the political elite – and even those dominant news outlets like the BBC pushing so hard for the EU – and vote brexit.
The reason for this, is that today social media is far more important than any news outlet like the BBC. But those like the BBC – and the political classes who get most of their news and views from the BBC – still believe they are “leading the debate”, whereas in truth they are pretty clueless most of the time and are just tagging along after everyone else.
So, one of the best indicators of where the trend is going is social media. Because these are the opinion formers these days and … THAT MEANS YOU!!
Yes, the people deciding elections are not Marr or even Neil on the BBC – but some lady with a cat stirring porridge for the kids tweeting with her friends about her views on Brexit. (Why don’t manufacturers make a splash proof laptop?)
That explains England, but I’ve always suspected that Scotland would follow England and swing toward Brexit. But I’ve not been able to understand why I had that gut feeling.
I suppose the obvious reason thinking about it, is that Scotland has just had one massive referendum, then a big election for our parliament and then we went straight into the brexit vote. So, very few were seriously thinking about brexit until after the election and then even the most politically active wanted to take a few weeks break. So, we are bound to be in “catch-up mode”.
But more fundamentally, brexit is a struggle between the powerful big organisations that dominate public life – and the little person. On the one hand we have BIG government, BIG companies, BIG unions on the other with have someone delivering fish, another making porridge, someone sitting on a train reading tweets.
Brexit is literally the people’s revolution – in the real sense it is the people taking back our democracy from the BIG INSTITUTIONAL EU (and don’t the big institutions hate democracy!).
So, why will Scotland follow England in swinging to brexit when support for the pro-EU SNP is so strong?
To understand the rise of the SNP, we must understand the fall in the power of BIG INSTITUTIONS like the BBC and the rise in the power of the little person on the internet. And now we can lump together a whole number of minor parties which traditionally were elbowed out of politics by the “mainstream” parties: SNP, UKIP, Green. These are all former fringe parties that have only started to do well electorally since the rise of the internet. It’s no coincidence!
So, yes, when a politician looks at the power map of the UK, they see a massive yellow splodge in Scotland. As such it is natural to think that those electing the SNP will support the SNP on all its policies. But they are wrong.
We have to turn that map inside out – and look at the power distribution of the (once) “mainstream” parties. Now we see that the “mainstream” is least influential in Scotland (where the “fringe” SNP got almost every Westminster MP)
Quick detour on “mainstream”: Thus the “mainstream” is now rapidly becoming a rump as election after election the “fringe parties” of the internet age gradually eat into the “mainstream” – indeed with UKIP getting a majority of EU seats and all “mainstream” parties left with a rump in the Westminster seats from Scotland – there’s now really no distinction which qualifies a party as “mainstream”.
So, far from Scotland being more loyal to the “mainstream” or traditional party politics, there is ample evidence that Scots are MORE willing than the English to buck the trend – to buck what we are told to vote by the BBC – to such an extent that our “fringe” party that rose with the rise of the internet, is now in power.
So, why would Scots buck the trend and parade like canon fodder through the voting lobby directed by the (now) “mainstream” SNP party in Scotland? The evidence is that the Scots are leading the way in rejecting traditional voting patterns and voting loyally for one party no matter how dumb their policies. Just look at the way once solid Labour voters through out Labour in Glasgow at the last election!
However, just because Scots will not dumbly follow the SNP into the anti-democratic remain camp – it doesn’t mean that some factor specific to Scotland may not cause us to reject brexit. The internet makes the electorate less gullible, less voting fodder, less directable. In doesn’t push us in a particular direction – except away from the once “mainstream” and toward democracy – because it’s the people’s revolution – and that means the people decide.