It has been puzzling many SNP supporters why the SNP leadership are so keen to vote remain when the SNP say brexit would leader to a second indyref.
One possible explanation is that the SNP leadership know their supporters could demand a second indyref – but the leadership know that at the present price of oil and given the clear no vote at the last referendum, there is no chance of winning a yes vote.
But this doesn’t ring true, because if this was the situation, wouldn’t the SNP take a hands off approach to the effect: “we believe in self-determination and so it should be for the English, etc. to decide”, they would argue for an abstention or leave it as a “free vote” which would strengthen the case for the SNP to call its own referendum with the advantage it would be at a time of its own choosing – which would mean it could chose a point where oil price is higher (if that ever recurs) and maximise the chance for a yes to separation.
So, something is very odd with the SNP position. The quickest way for independence is a brexit – but they are strongly arguing against it.
So, it seems to me that there is something fundamentally problematic with a UK exit from Europe that the SNP know will make it almost impossible to break the ties with the rest of the UK. That is to say, the Scots will vote for separation within the EU, but not independence outside the EU.
I therefore think, they’ve done some research showing that very few Scots would vote for what would in effect be a customs border to England which would come into place if the rest of the UK were outside the EU.However, it’s even more complicated than that. Because whether or not there is a brexit first or an indyref yes first, an indyref yes would inevitably trigger a brexit (without the Scots to hold back the rest of the UK), and we are told a brexit would lead to indyref (which the SNP assures us would be a yes).So, according to the SNP, the final outcome will be the same both Scotland and the rest of the UK outside the EU (with Scotland seeking to rejoin). So, if the outcome is the same, why is the order so important?So, I think the SNP know that the public will not support a yes vote to an indyref if the UK brexits first. But knowing that the public do not want this, the SNP want to force through a breakup of the UK knowing it will lead to the very position the Scottish people don’t want: a customs border with England.